Chui Niu, the Chinese version of liar's dice, looks like a game of nerve. Players bid on how many dice around the table show a face, bluff, raise, and eventually someone calls. Nerve matters, but underneath every bid is a question with a real answer: how likely is it that the bid is true? You can work that out in your head at the table, and this guide shows how.
If you are new to the game, start with our Chui Niu rules guide. This one is about the numbers.
Key takeaways
- Subtract the dice you hold of the bid face. The question becomes: how many more among the dice you cannot see?
- On average, one in six of the unseen dice shows any given face. With 15 unseen dice, expect about 2.5.
- Needing one or two more than the average is often still likely. Needing double the average or more is usually a good call.
- Bids carry information: a player who keeps bidding fours probably holds some. Adjust the table for what you have heard.
- At our tables, ones are ordinary dice, not wild, which is what the numbers below assume.
How our tables play
Every player has five dice under a cup. A bid names a quantity and a face, such as "six fours", meaning there are at least six fours among all the dice on the table. Each bid must raise the last one: a higher quantity, or the same quantity of a higher face. Instead of raising, a player can call the last bid. The cups are lifted, the dice are counted, and whoever was wrong, the bidder or the caller, forfeits a fixed number of play chips. Ones are not wild: a one counts only as a one.
Step 1: turn the bid into "how many more?"
A bid is about every die on the table, including yours. So first take away what you can see. If the bid is six fours and your cup holds two fours, the bid is true only if at least four of the other dice are fours.
Step 2: count the dice you cannot see
With five dice each, the dice you cannot see are everyone else's:
| Players at the table | Dice you cannot see | Average of any one face among them |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 10 | 1.7 |
| 4 | 15 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 20 | 3.3 |
| 6 | 25 | 4.2 |
Each die shows a given face one time in six, so the average is simply the number of unseen dice divided by six.
Step 3: read the odds from the table
The average tells you what is typical. This table tells you how likely each count is: the chance that at least a given number of the unseen dice show the face in the bid.
| Needed from the unseen dice | 5 unseen | 10 unseen | 15 unseen | 20 unseen | 25 unseen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at least 1 | 59.8% | 83.8% | 93.5% | 97.4% | 99.0% |
| at least 2 | 19.6% | 51.5% | 74.0% | 87.0% | 93.7% |
| at least 3 | 3.5% | 22.5% | 46.8% | 67.1% | 81.1% |
| at least 4 | 0.3% | 7.0% | 23.2% | 43.3% | 61.8% |
| at least 5 | <0.1% | 1.5% | 9.0% | 23.1% | 40.6% |
| at least 6 | — | 0.2% | 2.7% | 10.2% | 22.8% |
| at least 7 | — | <0.1% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 10.9% |
| at least 8 | — | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 4.5% |
The pattern to remember: needing the average or one more is often still close to a coin flip or better, while needing around double the average drops the chance to roughly one in four or less.
Three worked examples
- Four players, "six fours", you hold two fours. You need four more among 15 unseen dice: 23.2%. The bid is false about three times in four, so calling is a strong choice.
- The same bid, but you hold four fours. Now you need only two more: 74.0%. Calling would usually lose. Raise instead, ideally on fours.
- Six players, "five sixes", you hold none. You need five among 25: 40.6%. Calling wins about six times in ten, a reasonable call but not a certain one.
The numbers are a starting point: bids are information
The table assumes the unseen dice are random. They are when the cups are shaken, but the bids that follow are not. A player who opened with "three fives" and raised on fives again probably holds several fives. When the bids on a face come from players who seem to hold it, the true count is likely higher than the table suggests, so be slower to call. When a player suddenly switches to a face nobody has mentioned, it may be a bluff, or a way of steering the bidding away from something else.
Calling or raising
On your turn you have two choices, and both carry risk. Calling wins when the current bid is false. Raising passes the risk to the next player, but only if your new bid is itself believable, because it may be the one that gets called. A simple way to decide:
- Work out the chance the current bid is true, using the table.
- Find the best raise you could make: usually on the face you hold most of, since your own dice count towards it.
- If the current bid is unlikely and your best raise would also be a stretch, call. If your best raise is comfortably likely, raise and let someone else face the hard decision.
Why ones matter
In some house rules, ones are wild and count as every face. That doubles the average from a sixth to a third of the dice, and the whole table shifts: with 15 unseen dice you would expect five, not two and a half. At our tables ones are ordinary, so use the table above. If you play elsewhere with wild ones, remember that bids run much higher before they become unlikely.
Luck, skill and the long run
The dice are random, so a correct call can still lose and a wild bid can still be true. That is variance, and it is why a single round proves nothing. Over many rounds, the player who turns bids into numbers makes better decisions more often. There is no house in the round, only the players, which makes Chui Niu more a game of judgment than the table games; our guide to how randomness works in casino games explains why good decisions and good results are not the same thing in the short run.
You can practise on FUNFOR.YOU's Chui Niu tables with free play chips. There is nothing to buy with them and nothing to cash out.
Frequently asked questions
How many of each face should I expect?
About one in six of the dice you cannot see, plus the ones you hold. With four players and five dice each, that is about two and a half among the fifteen you cannot see.
Should I call whenever a bid is less than 50% likely?
Not automatically. Compare it with your best raise. If you can raise with a bid that is very likely true, raising may be safer than calling a bid that is only slightly unlikely.
Does it matter who made the bid?
Yes. A bid on a face the bidder has been building on is more likely to be true than the table suggests. A sudden new face is more likely to be a bluff.
What changes if ones are wild?
Each die then counts for the bid face one time in three instead of one in six, so the expected counts double and the odds in the table no longer apply. At our tables, ones are not wild.
Is Chui Niu a game of luck or skill?
Both. The dice are luck; the bidding, reading other players and deciding when to call are skill. Over many rounds, the skill shows.
