The dealer does not decide anything. They draw to 17 — hitting a soft 17 here — and stop. Because the script is fixed, the chance they bust from any given starting card can be worked out exactly, and those numbers are the foundation of every decision you make. Here they are.
The table
| Dealer shows | Chance of busting | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | about 35% | weak |
| 3 | about 37% | weak |
| 4 | about 40% | weak |
| 5 | about 42% | weakest |
| 6 | about 42% | weakest |
| 7 | about 26% | strong |
| 8 | about 24% | strong |
| 9 | about 23% | strong |
| 10, J, Q, K | about 21% | strong |
| Ace | about 12% | strongest |
The figures are rounded and assume the dealer plays the hand out. The hit-soft-17 rule used here nudges the six and the ace up by a point or so compared with a stand-on-17 table.
Why there is a cliff between six and seven
A dealer starting on 2 through 6 has to draw at least once, usually twice, and every draw is a chance to go over. A dealer on 7 or higher is one ten-value card away from a made hand, and ten-values are the most common card in the deck — four ranks of the thirteen. A 7 becomes 17 and stops; a 6 becomes 16 and must draw again into danger. That one-card difference is worth sixteen percentage points of bust rate.
What the numbers tell you to do
Against a weak card (2–6), you are being paid to let the dealer bust. Stand on any hard 12 or more — even a 12 — because your bust risk is real and theirs is doing the work. Double aggressively; split more pairs. The dealer's 42% chance of busting from a five is the single most favourable number you will ever see at the table.
Against a strong card (7–ace), the dealer will usually make a hand, so you have to make one too. Hit hard 12 through 16, however uncomfortable it feels. Surrender the worst of them — hard 16 against 9, 10 or ace — if it is offered on your first two cards, as covered in split or surrender.
The twelve-percent ace
Worth pausing on. An ace up gives the dealer a soft start that nearly always becomes a hand: it needs only a 6 through 10 to reach 17 or better on the next card, and even a bad draw leaves a soft total that keeps drawing safely. Against an ace you should expect to be shown a made hand and play accordingly.
Where this fits
These rates are why the chart in hit or stand looks the way it does, and why the dealer's fixed script is the house's edge rather than a handicap. The dealer busts more often than you do — but when you both bust, only one of you gets paid, and it is not you. That asymmetry, not the bust rates themselves, is where the house edge comes from.
